When the 360 launched, I was sure that their strategy to beat Sony to the punch was flawed, but now I am not so sure. The original Xbox had only been out a few years and was still the most powerful system on the market when the 360 hit store shelves. There was at least one or two years left in the black behemoth when Microsoft pushed out the 360. Nonetheless, we are now starting to see the fruits of Microsoft's get-there-first strategy. Right now, you can play Gears of War, Oblivion, GWAR 1 & 2, Call of Duty 2 & 3, Splinter Cell: Double Agent, Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Vegas, and Guitar Hero II on the Xbox 360. Meanwhile, the only game worth playing on the PS3 right now is Resistance: Fall of Man.
To be fair, the 360 had a similar quality shortage at launch, and a long dry spell after launch, much like the PS3 is experiencing right now. There is no doubt that a similar wave of must-haves will start hitting for the PS3. As a developer, you would be a fool to not support the current king of console gaming. But for the casual gamer who wants to get into the next generation now, the Xbox 360 makes for a strong case on the strength of its library alone.
Outside of the hardcore crowd who buy the consoles at launch, games sell hardware, so expect more PS3s to be sold as Metal Gear and the like start arriving. But already we are seeing holes in Sony's armor. Previous titles exclusive to the PS2 like GTA III (limited exclusivity to PS2) and Devil May Cry (complete exclusivity to PS2) are now bound for Redmond's machine. 3rd party exclusives are going the way of the dinosaur - it is simply too expensive for developers to not hedge their bets across all consoles, unless the hardware manufacturers themselves are willing to fork over the bucks to ensure that exclusivity. Sony could have done so with GTA IV and Devil May Cry IV but blew it. Assassin's Creed and Unreal Tournament are a couple of other games no longer exclusive to Sony's machine. These events undoubtedly had a direct hand in Ken Kutaragi, the father of the Playstation, leaving Sony.
Due to the escalating cost of producing games, this generation will see more console-clones than any other. So what you are left with to differentiate one machine from the other is:
1) hardware
2) services
3) first-party library & exclusives
Let's take these one-by-one and see who has the advantage.
Hardware
The physical hardware itself is clearly slanted in Sony's favor - the specs alone read like a nerd's wet dream - but at the current price point of the respective systems, I call it a wash. If Joe gamer can spend $599 or $399 for a console that essentially plays the same games, which is he going to pick? If he is in the market for a HD DVD player, the PS3 certainly makes for a very compelling argument. But if he just wants to game, the waters get murky, and the expensive Blue-Ray player suddenly becomes an albatross around Sony's neck.
The hardcore players already have their systems. Like all console wars, it is the elusive general populace that will determine the victor. Certainly the Playstation brand carries a lot of weight, but is that enough to get average gamers to pluck down the extra cash? As of right now, no. Stories abound of store shelves of unsold PS3s. The oft-rumored PS3 price cut will certainly help if it comes to fruition, but expect that to be offset by a 360 price reduction that looks certain to happen by the holiday buying season. Which means that, for now, Microsoft's lead is secure.
Winner: Tie
Services
PS3 offers an online service, for free, that allows gamers to play each other. Xbox's equivalent service costs $60/year. But this is definitely a situation where you get what you pay for. Xbox Live is integrated in the same fashion across all 360 games, your friends list is universal, and the achievements are as addictive as crack. The $5 a month alone has added incredible longevity to games- just ask the millions of gamers still playing Halo 2 on Live, who otherwise would have long moved on. Not to mention the spring dashboard updating hitting this week, which includes IM integration.
Live is a mature offering, developed over the course of several years and still expanding in functionality, whereas Sony's online service is a newborn still trying to find its way in the world. There is hope on that front, however, as PS3's service is starting to take shape with the recently-announced Home. Home is a 3D world where your avatar lives and can interact with other players. You will be able to have your own apartment and furnish it as you like. This is a killer offering and a step in the right direction, and is a true next-gen service, unlike Live's fully functional, if static, offering. But, like the PS3 itself, this cool feature is unrealized (launching this fall), and the 360 offers a more complete service package.
Winner: Xbox
First Party Titles & Exclusives
The Xbox 360 and PS3 versions of games like GTA IV, Madden, and Assassin's Creed will be close enough in game play and features to be almost identical (although expect the PS3 games to look better, graphics-wise). But the first-party library is ultimately where the console war will be won. Both systems have their A-list games that will entice fan-boy and casual gamer alike. Personal preference will ultimately make the difference here.
Major Upcoming PS3 Exclusives:
- Final Fantasy XIII
- Final Fantasy Versus XIII
- Grand Turismo 5
- Metal Gear Solid 4
- Warhawk
- God of War III
Major Upcoming Xbox 360 Exclusives:
- Halo 3
- Bioshock
- Too Human
- Splinter Cell
- GTA IV episodic content
- Star Wars Battlefront III
- Mass Effect
Summary
Ultimately, I expect this round to go to Sony, based on name-brand recognition alone, but it will be a close battle. Between the 360's lower cost, Xbox Live, the long list of triple AAA quality exclusives, and the movement of former PS exclusives to the Xbox, Microsoft will make up significant market share this console generation. It is fairly obvious at this point, however, that they are both playing for 2nd place, as the Wii looks to dominate both companies and will likely emerge as the overall market leader. Expect to see the end result being a pretty even split between the three manufacturers, however, with perhaps only 5 - 10% of market share separating first from last.
Personally, I have played the Wii and came away unimpressed. The graphics are blah and the much-hyped controller seems like a gimmick. Any system that can get 80 year-old nursing home residents to play a video game is certainly an impressive feat, but as a dyed-in-the-wool hardcore gamer, I prefer the traditional systems. But until the PS3 starts kicking out must-haves (God of War 3 would be sweet) or drops the price, I will get my next-gen kicks with the Xbox 360.